Sherlock Holmes der'KI

‘Once you eliminate possibilities, what's left is the truth.’ 

We are going through difficult and historically important days. Many commentators, analysts and experts in the economy and current press express their views through technical, political and situation Analyses. The window that the authors in question look at and the current they are in is effective in the analysis of their thoughts.  I believe that we should be in the belief that we should examine the causes and stages of formation of economic and political crises in the world and in Turkey, away from hamaset and prejudice.  Developments affect our personal psychology in everyday life.  So, can we more efficiently and effectively combat the processes of uncertainty, especially in trade and economic activity?

The answer to this question should be crowned with a strong ‘ yes’ with the contribution of our association's strong structure and awareness.

There are two types of inflation in the economy; demand and cost inflation are factors that determine price mobility in the economy.  While the exchange rate rises at a time when the USD/TL, Euro/TL rates develop against the TL, the prices of many imported inputs also rise and increase cost inflation, increasing costs are also reflected in the overall level of prices, creating inflation on demand. Both demand and cost factors affect each other. In this case, lowering interest rates will cause a trend of upward pressure on the exchange rate, while increasing interest rates may have a chance to rein in the exchange rate and increase the reserves that the Central Bank has.  But this process will create cost inflation, as it will reduce market mobility and increase the cost of financing.  In an environment where profitability rates and demand are falling, when there is high inflation, the unique formation of the nev-i person, called ‘ stagflation’, occurs. Economic management solution; in reforms such as incentives, tax cuts and asset peace, resources are in tight conditions, both physically and in terms of time of formation.

1. Step; we will examine our financial structure for 2016 with great care.

In 2016,how much has our active size grown? Are our stocks up? If it has increased, how many days can we Cash our stocks?  Have our trade receivables increased and how many days has the collection period of our trade receivables increased? Have our commercial debts increased? Are we having difficulty terminating our commercial debts? Is there an increase or decrease in our turnover? Is there an extension of the maturity of customer checks used? Are there any checks that don't return? How much is the check deposit amount available at banks? How are our costs?  These questions in themselves include a financial analysis specialty. As a result of this transparent observation, enterprising and professional employees who closely monitor their business activities will reveal the appearance of the company compared to 2015 and older years as of the current situation.  

2.Step; it is necessary to take professional measures against the exchange rate increase.

As you can appreciate, the DX index, which determines the USD value index in the world financial markets, will gain significant value in the first quarter of 2017, especially in the last quarter of 2016. In addition, along with the Fed's attempts to raise interest rates many times in 2017, it was noted that there will be a significant decrease in value, especially in emerging markets currencies.  According to BofA Merrill Lynch economic analysis, the three most risky countries are Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. (https://www.bofaml.com/bin/searchresults.html?q=turkey+report) ‘ currency risk’ is essential for companies whose raw materials are indexed to imports, which supply export products and services based on imports, which import for domestic market supply.  So, how can we manage exchange rate risk?  In response to this question, the summary of the financial process that our company has undergone in the first step is important to us. Let's make an application that combines this step and the first step; let your company be an organization that exports based on imports.  Your company's Stock time is’ 120 ‘days, your market Collection time is’ 180 ‘days, your market Collection time is’ 30 " days, in this template you melt the raw material you import within 120 days and make it ready for sale in this context; 30 days you make your imports through USD, your exports through Euro. In order to avoid your currency risk, you need to hedging usd for 30 days and then hedging euro for 150 days for your exports. If your inventory and trade receivables have increased, hedging transactions should be within these periods. In addition, firms must be open to ‘FUTURE and FORWARD’ transactions accompanied by certain guarantees.

3.Step; maintain cash flow and ensure its effectiveness

With this step, protectionist methods can be developed, especially by turning to long-term appropriate financing and incentive models to protect cash flows and increase equity profitability. The current period is the data in which the ‘ conservative financing " model is applied and the financing method should be applied in the line where the debt/equity balance is not disturbed.  For this purpose, companies that export and earn foreign currency Eximbank (Turkey Export Credit Bank A.P.) by using their resources, they can take advantage of the advance purchase of the supply that they will use for both long and appropriate financing and preparation for export. Eximbank offers appropriate solution proposals at the point of financing futures exports accredited as before shipment and after shipment, and Eximbank offers more advantages for exporters and foreign exchange earning companies along with commercial receivables insurance.  One of the most important obstacles of the banking system in Turkey on commercial activities is the collateral problem, the banks ' real estate requests from real person partners to be the subject of mortgages, and the other is the issue of the export goods or services loaded and formed for export companies to be considered collateral before the banks. Companies are experiencing ‘ lack of cash’ in order for the product to be supplied, operated and ready to be loaded.  It is in favor of companies that export and have foreign exchange earnings to apply for ‘ EXIMBANK’ for appropriate financing and ‘ Eximbank through KGF’ for support under collateral conditions. Currently, KGF ( Credit Guarantee Fund) for loans of TL 2 million provides the guarantee limit for SMEs in favor of Eximbank.  It has been announced by the Ministry of economy that this bail limit will be increased to 8 million. Ezcümle; each firm has a different and specific financial method in terms of the sector it is in, the dynamics it has and the markets it is targeting (internal-external - country difference-risk, etc.).  The phenomenon of ‘ behavioral finance’, which is owned by company officials, is the most important factor that makes the process independent of each other.  Companies should produce solutions that break the memorization during this time, which can spread external resources that are more conservative over a long time.