Sherlock Holmes SAYS
'' Once you've gotten the possibilities, you are the truth that remains. ''
The difficult and historical way is going through the days that are very important. Many commentators, analysts and experts in economics and current press; Technical, political and situational analysis. This is what the writers, the windows they look at, and the currents are in the analysis of current thinking. I believe that we should be in the belief that we should analyze the causes and formation phases of the economic and political crises in the world and in Turkey away from the hamaset and prejudice. Living developments affect our personal psychology in everyday life. Can we fight more efficiently and effectively in uncertainty processes, especially in commercial and economic activities?
We need to crown the answer to this question with a strong "Yes" with the contribution of our Association's strong structure and awareness.
There are two types of inflation in the economy; Demand and cost inflation are the determinants of price movements in the economy. While USD / TL and Euro / TL rates are rising against the TL, the prices of many imported inputs are rising and cost inflation increases while the increasing costs are reflected in the general level of prices and inflation on demand. Both demand and cost factors affect each other. In this case, while lowering interest rates may lead to an upward pressure on the currency, the interest rate may increase and the Central Bank may have the chance to increase the reserves that the Central Bank has. But this process will create cost inflation because it will reduce the market movement and increase the cost of financing. When profits ratios and high inflation are high in demanding environments, the so-called "Stagflation" is happening exclusively to the individual. Economic management solution; Incentives, reduction of taxes, and asset peace, and indeed this point is in tight conditions both in terms of physical as well as time of creation.
SECTION 1; We will examine the fiscal year 2016 with great care.
In 2016; How much has our active size grown? Our stocks have increased? If increased, how many days can we cash our stocks? Have we increased our trade receivables and how many days did the collection time of our commercial receivables increase? Have we increased our commercial debts? Are we having difficulty terminating our commercial debts? Is there an increase or decrease in the price? Is the prospect of extending the customer checks used? Is there a bow in the non-spinning draws? How much is the check deposit amount for the existing collateral in the banks? What are our costs? These questions include a financial analysis expertise on their own. As a result of this transparent observation, entrepreneur and professional worker who closely follow the commercial activities will reveal the appearance of the company according to the current situation by 2015 and earlier years.
SECTION 2; It is necessary to take professional measures against increase in exchange rates.
As you will appreciate, the DX index, which determines the value index of the USD in world financial markets, will be especially appreciated in the last quarter of 2016 as well as in the first quarter of 2017. In addition, with the FED's attempts to increase interest rates several times over the course of 2017, it has been noted that particularly emerging markets will experience significant depreciation in currencies. According to BOFA Merrill Lynch economic analysis; The three most risky countries; Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. (Https://www.bofaml.com/bin/searchresults.html?q=turkey+report) Raw material import indexed For exporting, import-based export products and services, imports for domestic market imports, '' Is a great property. How can we manage the risk of exchange? In response to this question; The summary of the financial process of our company in the first step is important for us. Let's make an application that combines this step and the first step; I am an organization that makes export based on imports from your company. If your company's inventory period is '120' days, it is collected from the market, '180' days, if it is your collection fee for your market '' 30 '' days, you can melt the imported raw materials in this pattern within 120 days and make it ready for sale. In context; 30-day maturity of your imports over USD, exports; You do it in euros. In order to prevent the risk of you; 30 days usd hedging, then you have to hedge 150 days for your exports. If the stock and trade receivables increase, the hedging transactions should be within these periods. In addition, companies must be open to FUTURE and FORWARD transactions in the context of certain guarantees.
SECTION 3; Protecting cash flow and ensuring its effectiveness
Together with this step, conservative methods can be developed by focusing on long-term appropriate financing and incentive models to protect cash flows and increase equity return. The financing method should be applied on the line in which the "debt financing" model is applied and the debt / equity balance is not deteriorated. Eximbank (Türkiye İhracat Kredi Bankası A.Ş.), which exports and buys foreign currency for this purpose, can take advantage of the procurement procurement that they will use for their long and appropriate financing and preparation of exports by using their resources. Eximbank offers appropriate solution proposals at the point of financing of export contracts after export like export as before, and Eximbank offers more advantages for exporter and foreign exchange earning company together with commercial receivable insurance. One of the most important obstacles to the commercial activities of the banking system in Turkey; If it is a collateral problem and the real property demands that are subject to mortgage from the real person partners of the banks are other; The exported goods that are loaded for the export companies and the resulting exported goods or services are considered as collateral for the banks. Companies are experiencing 'cash shortage' in order for their products to be supplied, operated and ready to be installed. Companies that exports and buys foreign exchange are favored by companies for "EXİMBANK" for the appropriate financing and "EXİMBANK" through the "KGF" for support in the collateral conditions. Currently KGF (Credit Guarantee Fund) for 2 million TL credits provides the guarantee limit for SMEs in favor of Eximbank. The Ministry of Economy has also declared that this limit of bail will be raised to 8 million. Ezcümle; Each firm has a different and specific financial method in terms of the sector it is in, the dynamics it has and the markets in which it is targeted (internal-external-country diversity-risk etc.). If the firm has 'behavioral finance', which is owned by the authorities, the process is the most important factor that is independent of each other. Firms, during this time, disturbing the more conservative outsourcing that can spread a long time to produce solutions.